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I’m back from my first time attending the International Association of Strategy Professionals conference down in Philly.
I loved the conference’s theme around resilient strategy and adaptive planning. Reflecting on the conference, I'm wrestling with skepticism about one major topic that kept coming up - "Strategic Foresight." The push to look even further out with scenario planning to anticipate what might happen. Outside of truly slow-moving foundational shifts - demographics, technology, climate - I'm not convinced this approach delivers value for most organizations.
This isn't an argument against thinking long-term. Your mission and values should absolutely be stable over decades. But there's a crucial difference between strategic direction and tactical planning. The problem isn't long-term thinking - it's the illusion that you can plan detailed tactics years out in a world that changes every few months.
I was talking to a strategic planning consultant @ IASP last week who told me a story that perfectly captures why I'm so skeptical of detailed multi-year plans. I'm fictionalizing this to be able to share it, but I guarantee you've seen some version of this play out.
The Story Begins
In late 2019, the library system was feeling optimistic. Their new Executive Director had just completed a comprehensive strategic planning process - six months of stakeholder interviews, community surveys, and board retreats. The result? A beautiful 30-page strategic plan spanning 2020-2025.
The plan was thorough. Really thorough. Year one: Renovate the main branch and launch three new STEM programs for kids. Year two: Open a satellite location in the underserved Oak Hill neighborhood. Year three: Partner with the community college for adult education programs. Years four and five: Expand digital archives and become the region's cultural heritage hub.
The board was thrilled. The funding strategy was mapped out - a mix of city budget increases, federal grants for underserved communities, and corporate partnerships with local tech companies. Every initiative had detailed timelines, budget allocations, and success metrics.
Then 2020 happened.
Reality Hits
- March 2020: Libraries close indefinitely. The renovation project is halted mid-construction.
- Summer 2020: Federal grant priorities shift overnight to pandemic relief and economic recovery. The Oak Hill expansion funding evaporates.
- Fall 2020: The community college partnership dissolves as enrollment plummets and they pivot entirely to online learning.
- 2021-2022: Just as they're recovering, AI explodes into mainstream consciousness. Suddenly their "digital archives" initiative looks quaint compared to what patrons are asking for - help understanding ChatGPT, AI literacy workshops, and guidance on which online information they can trust.
By early 2023, exactly zero major initiatives from the original five-year plan had been executed as designed.
What Went Wrong?
The Executive Director found herself in familiar territory - constantly explaining to the board why they were "behind schedule" and requesting plan modifications. Every quarterly board meeting became an exercise in justifying deviations from the sacred document.
But here's the thing: The library wasn't failing. In fact, they were adapting beautifully to serve their community's actual needs. They'd launched curbside service, created digital literacy programs for seniors, and became a crucial internet access point for remote workers and students.
The problem wasn't execution. The problem was the illusion that you can plan detailed tactics five years out in a world that changes every five months.
Now, to be fair - some organizations absolutely need longer planning horizons. If you're building nuclear power plants, major infrastructure, or navigating heavily regulated industries, multi-year commitments are unavoidable. But for most organizations? The detailed year-by-year tactical plans are planning fiction.
A Different Approach
What if the library had approached planning differently?
Long-term Mission & Vision (10+ years):
"Be the community's essential hub for learning, connection, and information access."
3-Year Goals (reviewed annually):
- Modernize facilities and expand accessibility
- Strengthen community partnerships
- Lead in digital literacy and information navigation
Annual OKRs (set annually, adapted quarterly):
- Objective: Increase accessibility and modernize our main branch
- Key Results:
- Complete 80% of renovation project
- Launch 3 new programs for underserved populations
- Achieve 90% satisfaction rating on accessibility improvements
Same aspiration. Same values. But the now with measurable goals that adapt to reality instead of fighting it.
This isn't about abandoning strategic thinking - it's about planning for uncertainty rather than planning away uncertainty. The library's directional goals (accessibility, partnerships, digital leadership) were exactly right. The mistake was believing they could predict exactly how those goals would be achieved years in advance.
A Better Process
The key insight? Organizations that thrive don't just plan differently - they build different planning processes.
Every year, they conduct strategic listening - checking in with their team, their community, their stakeholders. They ask: What's working? What's not? What's changed in our environment? Do our 3-year goals still make sense, or do we need to adjust them?
Then they translate those insights into measurable goals that allow for accountability for results - this transparency and accountability help move them toward their long-term aspiration while responding to current reality.
But here's the crucial part: This can't take six months. In a fast-changing world, you need strategic planning that's thorough but quick. A process that engages the right people, captures the right insights, and gets you to decisions fast.
The organizations that excel at adaptive planning have systematized this annual cycle. They've built processes that make team and community listening efficient and effective, not exhausting and time-consuming.
Your Turn
I'm curious - what's the most spectacularly obsolete strategic plan you've encountered? Any plans where it felt like you were reading historical fiction by year 3 of the plan?
Reply and tell me your story. The best (anonymized) examples might make it into next month's newsletter.
The organizations that thrive aren't the ones with the most detailed long-term plans. They're the ones that can sense, adapt, and execute quickly while never losing sight of why they exist.
